Daily market regime context you can explain and audit.

Kareg publishes a single market regime label every trading day, designed for end-of-day use and a fixed 20-trading-day horizon.

Regime labels

Every trading day receives exactly one label. Labels are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.

GREEN

Normal market conditions

Full risk budget available. Standard monitoring cadence.

AMBER

Elevated stress / transition risk

Reduce exposure, heighten monitoring. Review driver attribution for source of stress.

RED

Crisis conditions confirmed

Defensive posture, minimum exposure. Dwell-hold prevents premature de-escalation.

Core guarantees

Every output artifact is a self-contained computational receipt.

🎯

One label per day

Labels are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Every trading day receives exactly one label.

📅

Fixed 20-day horizon

All regime assessments apply to a fixed 20-trading-day forward window from the as-of date.

🔒

No look-ahead

The label for date t uses only information available by market close on date t. No future data may influence the output.

🔗

Reproducible by hash

Given the same model version, region, and as-of date, the artifact is byte-for-byte reproducible.

Artifact identity

Every artifact embeds versioning and verification fields for auditability.

FieldPurpose
schema_versionBumped on any breaking field change
model_versionBumped on any logic or calibration change
run_idUnique identifier for each generation run
artifact_hashSHA-256 of canonical JSON for verification

What Kareg is (and isn't)

What it is

  • A regime signal generator that classifies market conditions
  • Designed for end-of-day (EOD) use only
  • Operates on a fixed 20-trading-day horizon
  • Provides directional guidance, not precise forecasts

What it is not

  • Not a trading signal or execution recommendation
  • Not a probability of specific price movements
  • Not valid for horizons other than 20 trading days
  • Not designed for intraday or real-time decisions

Known limitations (honest and useful)

Every system has edges. We document ours.

Failure modeDescriptionMitigation
Flash eventsIntraday crashes may not appear until next EODUse real-time feeds for intraday alerts
Novel regimesUnprecedented events may not match historical analogsHuman override layer recommended
Data stalenessWeekend / holiday gaps require forward-filldata_health field indicates issues
View sample output